Saturday, June 5, 2010

NHL Equivalence Numbers


I enjoy stats, so I figured I'd take Behind the Net's Gabriel Desjardins' NHLE on my day off and come up with what we could expect to see next year if they were to play the full season in one league.  I highly doubt that will happen, but it gives a good idea. Keep in mind that I just used the regular seasons for these numbers. Math isn't exactly my strong suit, so if I messed up, please call me out on it.

Linus Omark
2009-10 KHL: 36 points in 56 games = .643 Points per game
2010-11 AHL Projected: 97 points in 80 games = 1.21 PPG
2010-11 NHL Projected: 44 points in 82 games = .533 PPG

Magnus Päärvi-Svenson
2009-10 Elitserien: 29 points in 49 games = .591 PPG
2010-11 AHL Projected: 83 points in 80 games = 1.04 PPG
2010-11 NHL Projected: 38 points in 82 games = .461 PPG

Teemu Hartikainen
2009-10 SM-Liiga: 33 points in 53 games = .623 PPG
2010-11 AHL Projected: 61 points in 80 games = .764 PPG
2010-11 NHL Projected: 28 points in 82 games = .337 PPG

Jordan Eberle
2009-10 WHL: 106 points in 57 games = 1.86 PPG
2010-11 AHL Projected: 64 points in 80 games = .800 PPG*
2010-11 NHL Projected: 46 points in 82 games = .558 PPG*
(*Question you probably have right here is, why does Eberle have a lower projection in the AHL but a higher in the NHL than MPS and Omark have. The NHLE numbers have a specific conversion rate for the CHL leagues that skewed the numbers a little bit.)

Toni Rajala
2009-10 WHL: 63 points in 60 games = 1.05 PPG
2010-11 AHL Projected: 36 points in 80 games = .452 PPG
2010-11 NHL Projected: 26 points in 82 games = .315 PPG

Like I said, let me know if I messed something up please.

-Written by Eric Rodgers-

2 comments:

  1. Question you probably have right here is, why does Eberle have a lower projection in the AHL but a higher in the NHL than MPS and Omark have. The NHLE numbers have a specific conversion rate for the CHL leagues that skewed the numbers a little bit.)

    I do have that question. I can't for the life of me figure what overriding reason might narrow the gap between NHL and AHL for a junior grad but not a Euro.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It helped that there was an actual number to translate the CHL stats to AHL equivalent stats. For the Euro leagues I was translating to NHL equivalent and then using the AHL to NHL number to come up with the AHL equivalent number. The only other point I can bring up is it might have to do with the North American game vs. the Euro game

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