Monday, July 15, 2013

Questions & more Questions in "Oilerland" pt 1

Where do I start? Between the MSM of TV and Radio, along with all our Oiler bloggers on the Internet and fans on twitter and Facebook, the world of hockey has some real crazy talk happening out there. Sure some stuff sounds quite interesting and plausible but some stuff does not even make sense. Sometimes it is simple deduction in figuring out what is ludicrous or what has possibility.

 I am like the next guy, always interested in the next possibility, be it a trade or signing or buyout. Also when trying to wade through the mud of the dirty waters of rumours and speculation, all you have to do is consider the few facts in front of you.When a team is over the cap, very low % of a chance that a team in that standing will trade for a player who has a high salary. Sure the Oilers can keep some kind of salary but unless they are getting a need met in their organization , why would they take on salary as well? Also it is unlikely a team will trade for a player unless they believe they can help their organization especially at the cost it takes. Some teams may take on salary for depth like Dallas did with Horcoff but they need the cap room first. All those small details need to be figured out.

The great insiders of the game don't just have a GUY, they have people who know or have heard that people are talking. They then do simple deduction of what are the different possibilities and demise from that conversation. After all that is done, they throw out that rumour possibility and then check out the reaction from the players, agents and the NHL clubs. Depending on what they hear, they either move forward or pull back off of the rumour. Very seldom, the great insiders know actual facts from directly within until it looks like it is almost all but over and the contract is all but signed.

There are only really 3 players who are constantly in rumour mills and could or have some kind of trade value should the Oilers make such a move. (we will all disagree of how much trade value they carry but nonetheless they still have trade value of some sort. More then say Ryan Smyth at this point of his career)

Ales Hemsky:
A rumour for picking up Zack Smith from Ottawa is possible if they consider him a option as their third line center. MacT has said Gordon is 3rd line center so trading hemsky for a guy who would be a 4th line center and keeping part of his salary and paying that high of a price? Does not make sense. Oilers might as well keep Hemsky and worse case scenario is wait til trade deadline and get what they can to a contending team. Trading Hemsky to Ottawa does not make as much sense either if there is no room in the top 6. Who wants to pay 5 million to a player on the 3rd line? Remember Bobby Ryan going to Ottawa in a trade? That closes those doors. OTTAWA? 10% chance

What about New Jersey and the Devils? Unlikely due to his contract size unless the Oilers picked some of it up on their end. If that were to happen, who does NJ have that the Oilers need? You need to have a match for that to occur. NEW JERSEY? 10% chance

Been hearing about rumours to Long Island to join John Tavares? He would look good there very likely but doubt it happens. They have been going younger and are tired of possible injury prone players, they just bought out their worst mistake in franchise recently , they don't want any part of Hemsky IMO. NEW YORK ISLANDERS? 5% chance (never say never)

Remember the CBJ rumours awhile back? With Howsen out of Columbus maybe not the same desire for Hemsky as there once was? Or is there? They have been stockpiling some talent and maybe they are willing to take him for a spin if they can unload some money back to Edmonton in a deal. Sorry Ryan Johansen will not be coming back in a deal if only Hemsky is included, does not make sense from a CBJ perspective. Just look at there roster and it may give you a couple ideas. COLUMBUS? 15% chance

Forget Philly, the Rangers or even Boston. Those locations sound too cash strapped to even consider his 5 Million and unless they send back something Edmonton really needs why would they eat some of his salary? 

What about Pittsburgh? I know they are a cash strapped team. They have spent quite a bit on their top level players already so this trade would have to have the Oilers eating some of his salary. Is that possible? Only if they send something back the Oilers want or need. They are deep in defencemen, so that is always a good possibility. Your guess is as good as mine. PITTSBURGH? 10% chance.

Unless MacT is a real salesman, I think we see Hemsky still start the year in Edmonton with the understanding if he plays good, a Stanley Cup contender may trade for him before the deadline.Worst case scenario, one of Edmonton's top 6 goes down on one of the wings and Hemsky moves up a spot to the 2nd line and actually does return to scoring again when it matters.

IMO, if you can't bring decent 2nd line defencemen back or a 3rd line winger minimum, you keep the assets and at worst send him off at the deadline for cheap or let him play out his last year in Edmonton. Hemsky can handle our 3rd line role IMO. We may be grateful we kept him if you look at our current bottom 6 forwards. btw...the total % I show is 50% chance he gets moved only. (watch now how some other team I did not mention trades for Ales Hemsky)

I have been told by a few different places to look into some other options for him to go to Vancouver, Minnesota or Anaheim. Not sure I can see that happening myself but can't say never.

NEXT POST COMING ON; Ladislav Smid

5 comments:

  1. Speaking of MSM never believe them.

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/07/the-jury-reached-the-right-result/

    ReplyDelete
  2. They tried to fix it.

    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2013/07/14/a-nation-of-george-zimmermans-awakened-understand-the-fraud-post-verdict-of-acquittal/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Of all the young black shooting victims in this country, you can name 1. Because you've been trained like a circus seal to bark on command.

    ReplyDelete
  4. http://backwoodshome.com/blogs/MassadAyoob/2013/07/16/zimmerman-verdict-part-2-the-unarmed-teen/

    ReplyDelete
  5. not sure what your links here are actually trying to say in regards to this blog. is there a point? Sorry guys but this is a hockey blog not really looking to dialogue in other conversations.

    ReplyDelete

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